## TL;DR:

Consumer proposals comprise a greater share of consumer insolvencies in larger cities and in Alberta. They are less common in smaller cities and in Quebec.

## First Steps

With data from the OSB's "Monthly Insolvency Statistics in Canada by Forward Sortation Area" I selected the 12-month period ended April 2023 to analyze CPs as a percentage of total consumer filings for 663 Canadian cities. Unremarkably, my first test revealed the result ranged from 0 to 100. The national average at April 30, 2023 was 78.04%.

Why was there such a significant range from 0 to 100%? Which cities were outliers? Would the CP-PB mix have been significantly different for smaller or larger cities?

Looking at the initial data set,

- in the 12-month period ended April 30, 2023 the mean number of consumer insolvency filings for the 663 cities was 117.2;
- in the four cities whose percentage of CPs insolvency filings was nil, filings were either 1 or 2 (I.E. all PBs);
- the city with the next lowest share of CPs was at 25% and had only 4 filings; and
- there were 19 cities where only CPs were filed (a 100% ranking):
- one had 41 files
- another had 18 files,
- another had 8 files,
- another had 7 files, and
- 15 had 5 files or less.

** **

## Filtering Out Cities Having Fewer Filings

I re-ran my plot including only those cities that had at least 50 consumer insolvency filings in the 12 months. Of the 12 provinces and 663 cities in my first all-inclusive analysis Yukon and Northwest Territories were now eliminated and the number of cities in my sample fell to 337. The chart follows:

Ignore the x-axis as it is just a count of the number of cities. From the above chart, CPs represented 50% of total consumer insolvencies in Elliot Lake, ON and 96.4% in Morinville, AB. Some cities can be considered outliers (term used somewhat loosely). I plotted all cities having a CP concentration of 87% or more and obtained the following chart:

Again, ignore the x-axis as it is just a count of the number of cities. The above chart shows the resulting 21 cities reflect only 4 provinces (AB, BC, ON, SK) with Alberta being dominant. After looking at these "high flyers" I plotted the botton end, comprising 19 cities having less than 60% CP concentration. The chart follows:

Again ignore the x-axis as it is just a count of the number of cities. There are 19 cities in this category, from five provinces, predominantly Quebec.

Comparing the above two charts **a consumer insolvency filing in Alberta is much more likely to be a consumer proposal compared to a filing in Quebec**. To further this assertion I plotted the CP / PB mix of 148 Alberta and Quebec cities for this period. The chart follows and shows Alberta is clearly dominant in terms of filing consumer proposals.

## Does size matter?

So far we have a pretty good outcome looking at results by province, namely Alberta is the province with consumer proposals representing the greatest proportion of consumer insolvency filings. I decided to see if cities with a greater number of consumer insolvencies intuitively suggests the proportion of CPs in that city will be comparatively higher. In other words, if a city has a large number of insolvency filings, is it probable that a greater proportion of those filings will be CPs than if the city instead had a smaller number of filings?

So, I firstly asked which cities had the greatest number of filings. Of the 337 cities having at least 50 consumer insolvency filings in the 12 months ended April 2023, eight stood out:

- Calgary 4,442
- Edmonton 4,197
- Winnipeg 1,924
- London 1,858
- Scarborough 1,857
- Toronto 1,838
- Hamilton 1,809
- Mississauga 1,750

And the ten smallest filers of consumer insolvencies in that same group of 337 cities were:

- Bonnyville, AB 50
- Marieville, QC 50
- Wallaceburg, ON 50
- Becancour, QC 51
- Dundas, ON 51
- Carleton Place, ON 52
- Fort Erie, ON 52
- Napanee, ON 52
- Saint-Henri, QC 52
- Sainte-Catherine, QC 52

I plotted just the above 18 cities to see how they compared. The chart follows.

Size matters. Cities having a larger number of consumer insolvencies also had a greater proportion portion of those being consumer proposals. Cities having a smaller number of consumer insolvencies had a much smaller proportion of consumer proposals. Noted, Bonnyville is the one exception, being one of the smallest insolvency filers with CPs representing 90% of its filings.